2019 World Conference on Natural Resource Modelling

HEC Montréal, Canada, 22 — 24 May 2019

2019 World Conference on Natural Resource Modelling

HEC Montréal, Canada, 22 — 24 May 2019

Schedule Authors My Schedule

Case Studies 2

May 22, 2019 02:00 PM – 04:00 PM

Location: Banque CIBC

Chaired by Olivier Bahn

4 Presentations

  • 02:00 PM - 02:30 PM

    GIS-based assessment of potential bioenergy feedstock supply using fuzzy logic and network optimization

    • Gia Nguyen, Montclair State University
    • Pankaj Lal, Montclair State University
    • Erik Lyttek, presenter, Montclair State University
    • Pralhad Burli, Montclair State University
    • Taylor Wieczerak, Montclair State University
    • Anthony Bevacqua, Montclair State University

    We propose a two-phase methodology integrating fuzzy logic and network optimization to assess potential bioenergy supply. The fuzzy analysis uses multiple criteria, including meteorological conditions, soil texture and topography to identify suitable cultivating regions. The network location analysis uses real road network, existing biorefineries to evaluate feedstock accessibility based on potential crop yield and cost of transportation for existing biorefineries for the supply of biomass. We assess the magnitude of land use changes and estimate the potential biomass supply from various land uses. We apply the concept of assessing the potential for switchgrass-based bioenergy in Missouri as a case study

  • 02:30 PM - 03:00 PM

    Modeling urban palm populations to estimate potential losses from coconut rhinoceros beetle (Oryctes rhinoceros)

    • Mark Ambrose, presenter, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC
    • Frank H. Koch, United States Forest Service, Southern Research Station
    • F. D. Cowett, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY
    • Alan Burnie, USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, Raleigh, NC
    • Olya Rysin, USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, Raleigh, NC

    The coconut rhinoceros beetle, native to southern Asia, was recently discovered in Hawaii. If it invaded the U.S. mainland, this insect could devastate urban palms. We used street tree inventory data to model palm populations in U.S. municipal forests. We applied stochastic gradient boosting to model palm relative abundance in street tree populations based on environmental and geographic variables. We then modeled overall street tree density as a function of biogeographic region and palm relative abundance. We combined the models to estimate total street palm populations. These estimates facilitate evaluation of the potential costs associated with a major palm-killing pest.

  • 03:00 PM - 03:30 PM

    An age-structured population model for lates calcarifer

    • Sabrina Streipert, presenter, University of Queensland

    The Australian Lates Calcarifer (Barramundi) fish species forms the basis of important commercial, recreational and customary Indigenous fisheries in Queensland. The development of quantitative models for this iconic Australian fish has been challenged by the complex nature of its life-cycle and the influence of environmental factors on key biological processes. Further complication includes the effects of stocked Barramundi fingerlings that contribute to the wild-caught fishery in events of severe flooding.
    In this work, an age-structure population model describing Barramundi's unique characteristics and discussing extensions to address external influence factors is being presented. It is assumed, that the recruitment follows the non-linear Beverton-Holt equation, modified by a variation factor to account for environmental variations. As is often considered in fishery sciences, it is further assumed that the Schaefer assumption holds. That is, catch is proportional to effort and abundance.

    In a collaborative project between the Department of Agriculture and Fisheries Queensland and the Centre for Applications in Natural Resource Mathematics, we applied this developed mathematical model to collected fisheries data. Using a Bayesian approach, the mathematical model was calibrated to assess the Barramundi stock and a scenario analysis was performed to explore the stability of the obtained results.

  • 03:30 PM - 04:00 PM

    The Canadian contribution to limiting global warming below 2 degree C: insights from a TIMES approach

    • Olivier Bahn, presenter, HEC Montréal
    • Oskar Sigvaldason, SCMS Global
    • Kathleen Vaillancourt, ESMIA Consultants

    Canada committed to reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 30% below 2005 levels, by 2030, and by 70% to 90% below 2005 levels, by 2050. These challenging commitments require special consideration of the energy sector. This presentation identifies different decarbonization pathways that would allow Canada to participate in global mitigation efforts. We analyze four GHG mitigation scenarios with increasing levels of mitigation efforts using NATEM, a TIMES model for Canada. The main transformations in the energy system include significant energy conservation and efficiency improvements, greater penetration of electricity in end-use sectors, and an increased use of bioenergy.