1 présentation

• 
  11h00 - 12h00

  Threshold risk and uncertainty quantification in environmental modelling

  • Jerzy Filar, prés., University of Queensland

  Mathematical models of environmental problems often demand understanding of complex dynamics and interactions between many physical and biological variables on the one hand, and human inputs on the other. Uncertainties accompanying such models stem from multiple sources. Sometimes they manifest themselves as cascading errors and at other times they involve the risk of key variables crossing undesirable thresholds. In both cases they undermine confidence in either the model or, worse still, the underlying science. We discuss these issues with illustrations from certain generic areas such as models of fishery management and integrated climate change models.